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State: Ntl. Paduda: How Accurate Were My 2021 Predictions (Part 2)?: [2022-01-06] |
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Yesterday we went through the first five of my predictions for 2021. Today, we’ll wrap up the second batch before I attempt to predict what 2022 brings. Prediction: The workers’ comp insurance market will stay soft
Verdict: true. This is really directly related to another prediction about rates, so if one was true, the other almost certainly had to be. Then again, if one was false, I’d be 0-for-2. Prediction: More layoffs and staff reductions will hit insurers and TPAs
Verdict: false. There are anecdotal stories about a few reductions here and there, but nothing big except reports indicated AIG “transferred” employees — apparently primarily claims staff — to Gallagher Bassett as part of its move to offload fixed costs. Where I really went wrong was predicting third-party administrators would have layoffs. Since TPAs’ biggest growth is coming from carriers offloading work to them, and if carriers are laying off staff, then the work has to go somewhere, and that “somewhere” is to TPAs. So, that was an unforced error. Prediction: Other than presumption and teleservices, there will be very few significant moves in WC regulation or legislation
Verdict: true. And there wasn’t much in the way of presumption or teleservices changes. No, a few states addressing medical marijuana is NOT significant. Prediction: OneCall will be sold and/or broken up
Verdict: false. That said, it’s just a matter of time. The bleeding has mostly stopped, but growth is anemic at best, service levels remain suspect and financials have gotten better in large part due to lots of expensive staff exiting the company. Prediction: Opioids and other dangerous drugs will get a lot more attention
Verdict: false. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health published a timely report on opioid issues among construction workers. But other than that, very little material action. This is REALLY disappointing. I get that COVID was a lot to handle, but the opioid crisis got even worse last year with a record number of opioid-associated deaths. That, and the fact that long-term usage of opioids is likely the most significant contributor to claim duration and long-term claim cost, should have insurers, employers and TPAs focused on addressing chronic opioid usage. The net Overall, five true, four false and one pending. Gotta do better than that. Joseph Paduda is co-owner of CompPharma, a consulting firm focused on improving pharmacy programs in workers’ compensation. This column is republished with his permission from his Managed Care Matters blog. |