Call or email us anytime
(805) 484-0333
Search Guide
Today is Friday, July 12, 2024 -

Industry Insights

Moore: Pandemic Effect Over in March 2027. Really?

  • National

March 1, 2023, would have been the end of the COVID-19 emergency. I am assuming that California was the last state to remove the emergency.

James Moore

James Moore

I was asked this question in an email last month. How long will the pandemic effect show up in workers' comp numbers?

So, policies — not just California-based ones — that became effective on March 1, 2023, would not have had the workers' comp pandemic effect attached to them. Let us count out the end of the effect.

I had written a few articles back in 2020 and 2021 in response to workers' comp pundits wanting to know the immediate pandemic effect numbers. My articles referred to the delayed workers' comp system, as insurance carriers do not report full policy numbers until the first UNIT STAT date, no matter the state.

Predictive analytics has changed the way carriers underwrite insured clients. Many underwriters are now looking back 10 years at workers' comp claim histories instead of the usual four.

Let us count out how that works in valued means claim valuations (total incurred):

  • Valued 9/1/2024 (first UNIT STAT date); applies to 3/1/2025-3/1/2026 policy experience mod; still has two years of pandemic data.
  • Valued again 9/1/2025 (second UNIT STAT date); applies to 3/1/2026-3/1/2027 policy experience mod; still has one year of pandemic data.
  • Valued again 9/1/2026 (third UNIT STAT date); applies to 3/1/2027-3/1/2028 policy experience mod; none in this policy.

The March 1, 2027, policy would be the first policy year to not have any of the pandemic policy years included in the experience mods.

Just the numbers

Yes, the effect of the pandemic will linger for what could be decades. The X-mod system will still have the effect present for four more years. That is the way the numbers are structured for claims development.

I wanted to show how the experience mod numbers would be affected overall. This may generate questions. 

This blog post is provided by James Moore, AIC, MBA, ChFC, ARM, and is republished with permission from J&L Risk Management Consultants. Visit the full website at

No Comments

Log in to post a comment


Do not post libelous remarks. You are solely responsible for the postings you input. By posting here you agree to hold harmless and indemnify WorkCompCentral for any damages and actions your post may cause.


Upcoming Events

  • Jul 29 – Aug 2, 2024

    76th Annual SAWCA Convention

    SAVE THE DATE! 76th Annual SAWCA Convention July 29 – August 2, 2024 Hotel Effie Sandestin 1 Grand …

  • Aug 14-17, 2024

    CSIMS 2024 Annual Dual Track C

    California Society of Industrial Medicine and Surgery (CSIMS) is combining its two conferences, PI …

  • Sep 23-26, 2024

    IAIABC 110th Convention

    The IAIABC invites you to the IAIABC 110th Convention, "Passport to Solutions". The IAIABC Convent …

Workers' Compensation Events

Social Media Links

c/o Business Insurance Holdings, Inc.
PO Box 1010
Greenwich, CT 06836
(805) 484-0333